![]() ![]() The power-sector plan, which could include targets for the growth of most generation options – but particularly renewables – might be expected during winter 2021-22, based on previous cycles. Further details will then be set out in sectoral plans over the following year. Targets of a similar nature are likely to be set as part of the overarching 14th FYP, due to be agreed early next year. (Solar has significantly exceeded the relatively low indicative target it was set five years ago.) More detailed development plans set out indicative targets for sectors such as renewable energy. Separate targets aim to raise the share of China’s energy mix that comes from non-fossil sources to 15% by 2020. Under the existing 13th FYP, coal power capacity is capped at 1,100GW. The energy targets that will be set by the plan mean it will be a crucial document for global efforts to tackle climate change. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.Īgainst this backdrop, there is already heated debate – as outlined below – over China’s 14th FYP, which will set national targets and priorities for the next five years. Coal fleet average utilisation rate (percent) over the same period (blue line, right axis). As a result, the coal fleet’s average utilisation rate fell further, to below 50% on average (blue line).Īnnual additions of new coal capacity in China, gigawatts (GW), between 2007-2019 (red line, left axis). Coal plants, which burn approximately 54% of all coal used in the country, provide 52% of generating capacity and 66% of electricity output – down from a peak of 81% in 2007.Ĭoal-fired power capacity grew by around 40 gigawatts (GW) in 2019, a 4% increase, and a pick-up from the past two years (the red line on the figure, below). But this progress has been built on a boom in energy from coal, meaning China has also become the world’s largest carbon polluter by far.Ĭhina’s CO2 emissions increased again by around 2% in 2019, based on recently released official economic data, and 65% of the annual growth in energy consumption came from fossil fuels.Ĭoal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and still accounted for 57.7% of China’s energy use in 2019, the data shows. ![]() Coal powerĬhina’s “ economic miracle” has seen the country become the world’s second-largest economy and pulled nearly a billion people out of poverty. As a result, the restraints on another coal power boom are likely to be financial and economic, rather than regulatory. To reach this goal, low-carbon sources will need to cover any increases in energy demand, meaning less need for additional electricity generation from coal.Īs the country grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, however, controls on overcapacity may be vulnerable to the political priority of propping up economic growth. The push for more coal power also appears at odds with China’s climate goals, including a target to peak its CO2 emissions no later than 2030. ![]()
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